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RAiD https://raid.org/10.82210/162fda4d
NESP MaC Project 4.26 – Assessing disease incursion risk by mapping and modelling shorebird migratory behaviour in the face of global change processes

Dates

Start Date
18-Nov-2024
End Date
20-Nov-2026

Titles

Title
NESP MaC Project 4.26 – Assessing disease incursion risk by mapping and modelling shorebird migratory behaviour in the face of global change processes
Title Type
Primary
Title Type:
Primary
 Preferred full description or abstract.
Start Date
18-Nov-2024
End Date
20-Nov-2026
Language

Descriptions

Description

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) is endemic in many countries along the East Asian-Australasian Flyway (EAAF). Shorebirds are noted carriers of avian influenza [1], making them likely candidates to not only fall victim to the increasingly alarming HPAI panzootic [2, 3], but also cause incursions of the virus into Australia [4]. Understanding the current and future migratory connectivity of different Australian shorebird populations within sites along their flyway is required to better predict and mitigate disease incursion risks. Such detailed knowledge will allow prediction of precise geographical pathways through which HPAI may spread through the flyway and ultimately arrive at an Australian migratory terminus.

Due to the importance of migratory behaviours when predicting HPAI incursion risk this project will:

Aim 1: Understand how migration timing has changed in Australian shorebirds, and to what extent different shorebird populations use different sites along the flyway and within the breeding ranges

  • investigate past changes in migration timing, networks, and connectivity in a set of key Australian shorebirds. Investigating changes in migration timing will show how migration behaviour changes as a function of global change processes. Predicting migration timing will enable directed disease response protocols at likely Australian arrival sites during key times. Identifying chains of wetlands along the migratory route in East Asia and the connectivity of the breeding ranges will enable more focused tracking of potential HPAI hotspots for an earlier warning sign of when (and where) HPAI may enter Australia. Furthermore, identifying migratory connectivity and how this differs between populations can tell us where Australian shorebirds are likely to contract and potentially introduce HPAI into Australia.

Aim 2: Building a tool to predict shorebird migrations and potential virus transport into Australia under different climate-, habitat, and socio-economical change scenarios.

  • Build on the outcomes of Aim 1 by modelling shorebird migrations to build a tool to predict changes going forward, using a range of climate and socio-economic scenarios (Aim 2). Modelling migrations in this way will allow for a future-focused perspective of how we expect populations to continue responding, thus allowing disease incursion management and mitigation strategies to be created in lieu of what is to come, rather than what has already occurred.

Planned outputs: (i) rates of migration timing change in shorebirds (and impacts of this on demographic rates) (ii) connectivity between sites in the flyway (iii) dispersal of populations across the breeding range (iv) a tool to forecast migration behaviour under future scenarios.
Description Type

Primary
Description Type:

Primary

 Preferred full description or abstract
Language
English

Contributors

Name Marcel Klaassen ORCID Logo (unauthenticated)
Contributor ID ORCID Logo https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3907-9599 (unauthenticated)
Leader
Yes
Contact
Yes
Positions
Position
Principal or Chief Investigator
Position:
Principal or Chief Investigator
 Principal investigator refers to the person(s) in charge of a research project
Start Date
18-Nov-2024
End Date
20-Nov-2026
Roles
Investigation Data curation
Name Simeon Lisovski ORCID Logo (unauthenticated)
Contributor ID ORCID Logo https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6399-0035 (unauthenticated)
Leader
Yes
Contact
Yes
Positions
Position
Principal or Chief Investigator
Position:
Principal or Chief Investigator
 Principal investigator refers to the person(s) in charge of a research project
Start Date
18-Nov-2024
End Date
20-Nov-2026
Roles
No Entries
Leader
Yes
Contact
Yes
Positions
Position
Principal or Chief Investigator
Position:
Principal or Chief Investigator
 Principal investigator refers to the person(s) in charge of a research project
Start Date
18-Nov-2024
End Date
20-Nov-2026
Roles
No Entries

Organisations

Name
Deakin University

Roles
Role
Lead Research Organisation
Role:
Lead Research Organisation
 The research organistion administratively responsible for the project; administering organisation
Start Date
2024-11-18
End Date
2026-11-20
Name
Alfred-Wegener-Institut Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung

Roles
Role
Lead Research Organisation
Role:
Lead Research Organisation
 The research organistion administratively responsible for the project; administering organisation
Start Date
2024-11-18
End Date
2026-08-20

RelatedObjects

No Entries

Alternate Identifier

No Entries

Alternate URLs

Related RAiDs

Title
NESP Marine and Coastal Hub (10.71821/418be95a)
Relation
IsPartOf
Relation:
IsPartOf
 Relates a subproject back to its parent project

Access

Type
Open Access
Type:
Open Access
 Open access refers to a resource that is immediately and permanently online, and free for all on the Web, without financial and technical barriers.The resource is either stored in the repository or referenced to an external journal or trustworthy archive.
Language
Text
Embargo Expiry

Subjects

Subject
Environmental assessment and monitoring (410402)
Keywords
Text
Wildlife and habitat management
Language
eng
Subject
Environmental management (410404)
Keywords
Text
Environmental management
Language
eng
Subject
Wildlife and habitat management (410407)
Keywords
Text
Environmental assessment and monitoring
Language
eng
Subject
Conservation and biodiversity (410401)
Keywords
Text
Conservation and biodiversity
Language
eng

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      "text": "Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) is endemic in many countries along the East Asian-Australasian Flyway (EAAF). Shorebirds are noted carriers of avian influenza [1], making them likely candidates to not only fall victim to the increasingly alarming HPAI panzootic [2, 3], but also cause incursions of the virus into Australia [4]. Understanding the current and future migratory connectivity of different Australian shorebird populations within sites along their flyway is required to better predict and mitigate disease incursion risks. Such detailed knowledge will allow prediction of precise geographical pathways through which HPAI may spread through the flyway and ultimately arrive at an Australian migratory terminus.\n\nDue to the importance of migratory behaviours when predicting HPAI incursion risk this project will:\n\nAim 1: Understand how migration timing has changed in Australian shorebirds, and to what extent different shorebird populations use different sites along the flyway and within the breeding ranges\n- investigate past changes in migration timing, networks, and connectivity in a set of key Australian shorebirds. Investigating changes in migration timing will show how migration behaviour changes as a function of global change processes. Predicting migration timing will enable directed disease response protocols at likely Australian arrival sites during key times. Identifying chains of wetlands along the migratory route in East Asia and the connectivity of the breeding ranges will enable more focused tracking of potential HPAI hotspots for an earlier warning sign of when (and where) HPAI may enter Australia. Furthermore, identifying migratory connectivity and how this differs between populations can tell us where Australian shorebirds are likely to contract and potentially introduce HPAI into Australia.\n\nAim 2: Building a tool to predict shorebird migrations and potential virus transport into Australia under different climate-, habitat, and socio-economical change scenarios.\n- Build on the outcomes of Aim 1 by modelling shorebird migrations to build a tool to predict changes going forward, using a range of climate and socio-economic scenarios (Aim 2). Modelling migrations in this way will allow for a future-focused perspective of how we expect populations to continue responding, thus allowing disease incursion management and mitigation strategies to be created in lieu of what is to come, rather than what has already occurred.\n\nPlanned outputs:\n(i) rates of migration timing change in shorebirds (and impacts of this on demographic rates)\n(ii) connectivity between sites in the flyway\n(iii) dispersal of populations across the breeding range\n(iv) a tool to forecast migration behaviour under future scenarios.",
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